Further increases in the volume of sovereign debt, at a time of unprecedently low real interest rates, means the servicing burden will be larger still when eventually rates do rise.. Feb 23rd, 2023 Following some recent Geopolitical events and some highly publicised IT systems outages in Sweden in the last few weeks, NETSCOUT's ASERT (ATLAS Security Engineering and Response . Credit: Getty Images Iran protests: Nationwide protests started after the demise of Mahsa Amini on September 13, 2022. In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975 AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). The world's response to Russia's aggression came swiftly with the EU, the U.S., and other major G-20 nations imposing a severe set of economic sanctions that . One-stop, member-exclusive portal for the entire suite of indicators. << 100, Songren Rd., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 110, Taiwan. Continuity and Change in the Rise of Brazil. RodgerBaker isexecutive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE. Weekly Geopolitical Report - The 2022 Geopolitical Outlook (December 13, 2021) by Bill O'Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last WGR of 2021; the next report will be published on January 18, 2022. /Font << The war has now ground on for a year. The Website is intended for the following audiences in each respective country or region: In the U.S.: public distribution. /ExtGState << /F2 28 0 R /ExtGState << The quick, huge stimulus programmes he desired were delayed and thinned out by a handful of fellow Democrats in Congress. Users are advised to periodically review the contents of this Website to be familiar with any modifications. If rising consumer prices persist in the major economies into the second half of 2022, hurting consumers, then a mix of political and public pressure might push one major central bank to hike rates faster than expected, unsettling markets. . The deepest problems will be felt by those carrying significant levels of short term debt, particularly if it is denominated in a foreign currency. issued in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by BlackRock Saudi Arabia (BSA), authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), License No. No information on this Website constitutes business, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, regulatory, accounting or any other advice. Tel: (02)23261600. The desire to prevent Ukraine falling into NATOs orbit remains as strong as ever in Moscow. The lack of leadership likely hindered al-Qaida centrals ability to distribute critical propaganda around this anniversary in 2022. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. /Resources << Although Russia developed its own COVID-19 vaccine early, it struggled to persuade its people to take it and non-medical interventions to curb the virus were poorly coordinated. What has weakened, perhaps, is the conviction that Western punishment for military action against Ukraine will extend beyond economicsanctions. << /F6 32 0 R There has been ongoing speculation that the government will bring it forward. 10. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] % 00796793. /MediaBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] Once you have confirmed that you agree to the legal information herein, and thePrivacy Policy by indicating your consent we will place a cookie on your computer to recognise you and prevent this page from reappearing should you access this site, or other BlackRock sites, on future occasions. /Type /Page >> Top-level appointments will consolidate his power. The Ukraine conflict will likely be a focus for discussions. Technology-driven trade and client interaction are nothing new. /GS5 22 0 R The cookie will expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to this important information. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. Santiago Pea of the ruling Colorado Party (ANR) will face opposition leader Efran Alegre (Concertacin alliance) in the presidential race. The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, welcomes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the official arrivals for the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. Spring Periodical with 2018 Year end statistics and commentary, plus results of the 2019 'State of the Industry Survey', conducted jointly with ICISA. In addition, a new premier will be appointed in March to replace Premier Li Keqiang. In Latin America, institutional investors and financial intermediaries only (not for public distribution). /Font << If you are unsure about the meaning of any of the information provided, please consult your financial or other professional adviser. /Kids [4 0 R 5 0 R 6 0 R 7 0 R 8 0 R 9 0 R 10 0 R] Track the status of job markets across the US through online job listings. February 28, 2023 11:00 AM ET [11:00] (New York), February 22, 2023 09:30 AM ET [09:30] (New York), 03:30 PM CET [15:30] (Brussels), 10:30 PM SGT [22:30] (Singapore), Your Indispensable guide through the global recession. /Type /Group Those reliant on tourism will have a more difficult time, and all will to varying extents be constrained by the restrictions on movement required to control COVID-19. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. But can Chinas 180 degree shift in priorities from zero-COVID to economic growth deliver? /F6 50 0 R In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. /CropBox [0 0 594.95996 840.95996] /MediaBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] The 75th anniversary of the UN Declaration of Human Rights will likely increase scrutiny on human right issues globally. Montenegro will hold its presidential election. /F1 27 0 R /Type /Page /F2 28 0 R /StructParents 0 Co., Ltd. (Financial Instruments Business Operator: The Kanto Regional Financial Bureau. The pick of key issues to look out for in 2023 from macro trends, potentially choppy seas for smaller ECAs, possibilities for using Islamic finance in the renewable energy transition, Chinas reopening, a bumpy CPRI outlook, and reinsurance complexities. >> For Professional Investors only (Professional Investor is defined in Financial Instruments and Exchange Act). endobj Those with strong extractive sectors seemed poised to benefit from strong demand for commodities, albeit with the risk of price volatility. Neither the DFSA or any other authority or regulator located in the GCC or MENA region has approved this information. \jKVBJQ[B=BUyHps>f|rsjN8 :L /Resources << 13 Major Events in 2022 That Could Change Europe's Economy in the World . >> << The US launches the Artemis mission to the Moon. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock. Membership in The Conference Board arms your team with an arsenal of knowledge, networks, and expertise that's unmatched in scope and depth. After political parties failed to agree on the formation of the next government, the president scheduled another round of snap elections the fifth elections since April 2021. No casualties were reported. Governments that can easily service their debts, at a time when investment needs are considerable, have an incentive to borrow still more. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. 2:54 am. /G6 63 0 R For your protection, calls are usually recorded. In 2022, we saw major disruptions that can result from drought. Starting in 2022, we will shift to a bi-weekly publication schedule and will add a new Geopolitical Podcast with each report.) As a global investment manager and fiduciary to our clients, our purpose at BlackRock is to help everyone experience financial well-being. Despite continued sparring with the US, 2022 should not be a year of crisis because of Chinas domestic agenda provided that the authorities in Taiwan do not provoke Beijings ire by taking steps towards declaring independence. Countries supporting Ukraine are likely to extend and expand sanctions against Russia, which will take the opportunity to reiterate its purported claims to Ukrainian territory. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank's outlook report. Consequently, Russias authorities will grind their way through the early months of 2022 amid high COVID-19 case numbers and fatalities, as well as popular dissatisfaction over high inflation. The health-related uncertainties present a unique challenge for policymakers. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. /Group << Contrary to trend (and regional cooperation) sits Uruguay, which is seeking bilateral trade deals outside the Mercosur framework and testing the limits of South American cohesion. Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022. In the two decades before the pandemic, global supply chains became sophisticated, low margin and highly vulnerable as companies drove down costs, relying on just-in-time models and sole suppliers. The information contained within, does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer of, invitation or proposal to make an offer for, recommendation to apply for or an opinion or guidance on a financial product, service and/or strategy. View the Full Report and Map Here: https://www.geopolitical.report/bomb-explodes-in-kirani-ghat/ Bomb explodes in Mokokchung A bomb exploded in Aongza ward in Mokokchung on Sunday night. With the world reaching for climate targets and decarbonization, whilst simultaneously struggling with geopolitical conflicts, pricing . In Europe, governments will map out the next stage of their plans for decarbonisation. These are relatively low-cost battlefield weapons that give Pyongyang a greater ability to strike at military bases, depots and staging grounds in South Korea. The meeting will take place in Sapporo (Japan). It is your responsibility to be aware of, to obtain all relevant regulatory approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registrations under, and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction in connection with your access. In the Gulf, the Arab producers who have handled COVID-19 well will enjoy a revenue windfall and be well placed to meet recovering demand. stream Unlike Iran, it refuses to import foreign vaccines for those citizens suspicious of the native jab. /Font << >> /Group << In South Korea, this material is for distribution to the Qualified Professional Investors (as defined in the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act and its sub-regulations). THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. The third anniversary of the killing of George Floyd will be accompanied by memorial events and demonstrations in major US cities and other locations. /Contents [41 0 R 42 0 R 43 0 R] But which approaches can best build upon the opportunities presented by growing intra-regional trade, and investment in sustainable infrastructure? Pakistan will hold general elections and provincial elections for the Sindh and Balochistan provinces in October after the term of the National Assembly (lower house) and respective provincial assemblies end in August. Some reconstituted supply chains will be shorter, thicker and have greater redundancy. Although the world is still struggling to emerge . /ExtGState << With that in mind, here are five lower-profile geopolitically significant events of 2022, and what they may mean moving forward. Political polarisation will widen in the run up to the elections. Although the opposition is unified, ANR continues to be the strongest party in the country, which increases Peas electoral chances. In China, this material may not be distributed to individuals resident in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC, for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. New resources are being added regularly to help you lead with confidence. >> In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our, Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our, CED Policy Brief: Ukraine War One Year Round-Up: Turkey's Crucial Role, CED Policy Brief: Ukraine One Year Round-Up: Sanctions Against Russia, CED Policy Brief: The Weekly Round-Up: Developments on Ukraine and Geopolitical Impact 40, CED Policy Brief: The Weekly Round-Up: Developments on Ukraine and Geopolitical Impact 39, Supply-Demand Imbalances, Uncertainty to Keep Oil Prices in Flux, Downgraded global GDP forecast, but no recession expected, The Ongoing Impact of the War in Ukraine on Corporate Citizenship, European Energy Policy at a Time of Geopolitical Instability, Fed Projects Hawkishness Amid War, Pandemic Crises, Sustainability Is the Pathway to Supply Chain Resilience, Think tank: War in Ukraine exerts economic effects, Access New Insights on the War in Ukraine, Five Questions Boards Should Ask About the War in Ukraine, GEOPOLITICS - PUBLIC POLICY, STRATEGY & RISK. As a result of disappointing progress at COP27, members will be under pressure to make significant progress in securing commitments to reducing carbon emissions. /F11 57 0 R The loss of cheap, flexible labour in logistics, the disruptions caused by factory or port closures, and the loss of transport capacity as passenger flights were cut back and their empty holds were no longer available for durable and perishable goods (or because containers were stuck in the wrong part of the world or were unaffordable for exporters to move) point to a system of supply chains that was agile and efficient but fragile, and is now broken. /Image43 39 0 R The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead. Global Farmer Insights 2022. In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution. Centers offer access to world-class experts, research, events, and senior executive communities. /Length 2 Lula will visit Biden in Washington DC (US). It is the first meeting on the water security specifically since 1977. /Annots [75 0 R 76 0 R 77 0 R] /Type /Pages endobj >> /Contents [70 0 R 71 0 R 72 0 R] In South Africa, please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorized financial services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. /ROSTAMP (BIIM0722U/M-2274848-${pageNumber}/${totalPages}) endobj The UN Water Conference will focus on the linkages between water, health, sustainable development, climate resilience, and environmental cooperation. /Type /Catalog /Font << In Japan, this is issued by BlackRock Japan. endobj Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello construct a measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and economic effects since 1900. /GS8 21 0 R Tools to help manage corporate governance, sustainability, and philanthropy programs. Incidents of political violence are likely to increase after the campaign period begins and candidates begin to organise rallies. The rise of an aggressive and revisionist China, a devastating global pandemic, the disruptive churn of . This event took place on 02/26/2023. https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/investor-right. /G5 46 0 R . 12 Big Geopolitical Events We Think Will Happen In 2015. >> endobj /G3 62 0 R As northern states emerge from their winter, further opening of economies will be possible. endobj In Italy: This document is marketing material. >> For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx. /Tabs /S Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL, Tel: +44 (0)20 7743 3000. Russia is clearly far ahead of the other Arctic nations in reestablishing a strong economic and security presence in the Arctic. It is notable that their counterparts in larger economies such as Brazil, Russia and South Korea have already started to tighten. Geopolitical events like military or economic conflicts can affect stock markets in many ways. 2 0 obj Nigeria too will struggle to arrest the trend of insecurity that has spread from its northeast to its northwest, and the challenge to central authority that has emerged in the south. Political Risks in 2022. Note: European Central Bankmeetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. Yet that winter will pose new strains for some developed states, as publics press for increased freedom of movement and governments seek to press the vaccine-hesitant and the vaccine opposed to either accept the jab or suffer limits on their ability to work and move. /F6 32 0 R Los Angeles Events - January 2023. Sales. 1 0 obj BlackRock shall have no liability for any loss or damage arising in connection with this Website or out of the use, inability to use or reliance on the Contents by any person, including without limitation, any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential, regardless of whether they arise from contractual or tort (including negligence) or whether BlackRock has foreseen such possibility, except where such exclusion or limitation contravenes the applicable law. The president is elected using a two-round voting system. In compiling a list of the top five geopolitically significant events of 2022, the top three were rather obvious Russias invasion of Ukraine, Chinas military response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosis (D-Calif.) Taiwan visit and the strains on the global economy that are driving a revival of economic nationalism and protectionism. The Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022 Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. endobj /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] /Contents [54 0 R 55 0 R 56 0 R] /Parent 2 0 R /Type /Group /F3 29 0 R The next year will see a marked divergence in performance among developing economies. 2023 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. %PDF-1.3 Evaluate and optimize the impact of corporate citizenship programs. The European Council of EU leaders will meet to discuss migration and competitiveness between the US and China. Primary tabs. >> If Republicans win either chamber of the US Congress, President Biden will likely be operating under a divided government for the next two years, making it difficult to enact legislation without bipartisan support. Eastern Economic Forum is an annual international forum held in Vladivostok (Russia) that aims to encourage investment and economic development in Russias Far East. Turkey's Economic Troubles. Incumbent Julius Maada Bio is currently the favourite to secure re-election. /G7 47 0 R This Website is for your personal use. In the DIFC this material can be distributed in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited Dubai Branch which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Where is the avalanche of claims and insolvencies expected to emerge from COVID-19?The picture so far is uneven across geographies, sectors and business linesAnd for the future? Global supply chains, particularly in technologies of strategic value, are undergoing a remarkable reevaluation as geopolitical events and trends weigh on the minds of decisionmakers across government and industry. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central banks outlook report. South Africa, Russia and China will hold military exercises on the east coast of South Africa. In Canada: public distribution. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Analyzing How Geopolitical Events Have Impacted Crude Oil Markets Dean Foreman Posted May 13, 2022 OPEC announced recently it will continue with planned modest increases in crude oil production, rebuffing the U.S. and others who for months have asked the cartel to ramp up its output. Sanchezs left-wing coalition has also shown signs of splintering, further casting doubt on his re-election chances. /StructParents 4 Continued pressure on Taiwan, expansionist moves in East Asia and internal pressure on corporations to support the government's "common prosperity" goal will certainly have spillover impacts on corporate supply chains serving these markets. For holiday hours or specific inquiries, please contact the businesses directly. is more powerful than usual. Russia has not been invited this year due to the Ukraine conflict. What does the long-term really look like? Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 549 5200, Tel: 31-20-549-5200. In Taiwan, independently operated by BlackRock Investment Management (Taiwan) Limited. Some states facing these threats could step away from full convertibility and embrace capital controls. Copyright, trademark and other forms of proprietary rights protect the Contents of this Website. 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